Off-Plan Tracker Methodology

How we score delivery risk, payment plans and appreciation potential for 400+ Dubai off-plan projects.

Data Sources

The Off-Plan Tracker synthesizes data from three primary sources to ensure accuracy and breadth:

RERA (Real Estate Regulatory Authority)

Off-plan project registrations, unit counts, payment plans and developer financial filings. RERA maintains a public registry of all off-plan projects and registered agents.

DLD (Dubai Land Department) Off-Plan Registry

Transaction history, registration dates, price indices by community and handover status. DLD records all property transactions and maintains historical pricing data accessible via Dubai Property Explorer.

Developer Announcements & Press Releases

Completion milestones, handover dates, payment plan updates and project modifications. Published on developer websites, RERA portals, and news outlets.

Note: Data is consolidated as of 2026-04-15. Projects, payment plans and timelines evolve; always verify with the developer and RERA before investment decisions.

Delivery Risk Scoring

Delivery Risk Score combines four factors in a weighted formula to estimate the likelihood of on-time, on-quality handover. Scores range from 1 to 100 (100 = lowest risk). Risk Tiers map scores to qualitative levels:

Tier Definitions

VERY_LOW (85–100): Tier-1 developers (Emaar, Sobha, Nakheel) with 90%+ on-time track record and 70%+ completion.
LOW (75–85): Established developers (Omniyat, Meraas) with 85%+ on-time record and 50%+ completion.
MEDIUM (60–75): Mid-tier developers (Binghatti, Azizi, Danube) with variable track records; 30%+ completion.
HIGH (40–60): Emerging developers (Tiger, Arada, Imtiaz) with limited or mixed track record; 20%+ completion.
VERY_HIGH (1–40): Early-stage or high-risk developers with minimal track record or execution concerns.

Formula

Delivery Risk Score =

(Developer Trust Score × 0.60) +
(Project Progress Score × 0.25) +
(Sold-Out Ratio Score × 0.10) +
(Community Maturity Score × 0.05)

Component Breakdown

Developer Trust Score (60%): Derived from Wave 7 Developer Track Record. Incorporates on-time delivery %, financial strength, complaint volume and historical performance across 40+ Emaar, DAMAC, Sobha projects.
Project Progress Score (25%): Completion percentage mapped to score. 80%+ completion = 90 points; 50% = 70 points; 20% = 40 points.
Sold-Out Ratio (10%): Projects with 80%+ sold-out = 90 points (developer commitment). Under 50% sold = 50 points (lower conviction).
Community Maturity (5%): Established communities (Dubai Marina, Downtown) = 80 points. Emerging (Dubai Creek Harbor) = 60 points.

Payment Plan Scoring

Payment Plan Score (1–10) reflects buyer-friendliness: lower down payment, flexible installments and minimal handover lump sums score higher.

Score Interpretation

9–10: Exemplary. 5% down or less, 2–3% monthly installments, 30–40% on handover. Ideal for cash-flow investors.
7–8: Flexible. 10–15% down, 35–40% construction, 50% handover. Well-balanced for most investors.
5–6: Moderate. 20–25% down, 25–30% construction, 50% handover. Standard market terms.
3–4: Stringent. 25–30%+ down, accelerated installments. Requires capital upfront.
1–2: Aggressive. 40%+ down or back-loaded (50%+ on handover). High financing burden.

Factors Considered

Down payment percentage (lower = higher score)
Payment phase distribution (flexible construction installments = higher score)
Handover lump sum (lower = higher score)
Post-handover payment options (2+ years = higher score)

Appreciation & Yield Projections

Appreciation Since Launch is calculated from historical price data (DLD registry) comparing launch price per sqft vs. current market price per sqft.

Projected Handover Yield estimates rental yield at handover based on community rental comps, unit mix and project tier. Example: 2-bed in Dubai Marina projected at 5.8% yield.

Projected Resale Appreciation forecasts value growth from current price to estimated handover-year market price, factoring community maturity, supply and developer track record.

Important Disclaimer

These are estimates based on historical trends and comparable projects. Market conditions, interest rates, supply/demand dynamics, and regulatory changes can significantly alter actual returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before investing.

Limitations & Disclaimers

Not RERA-Certified: Scores are research estimates, not official RERA assessments or appraisals. Always verify project details with RERA and the developer.

Data Lag: Off-plan market moves quickly. Projects, payment plans and timelines change frequently. Data herein reflects the market as of 2026-04-15. Check with the developer for updates.

Estimation Risk: Delivery risk scores combine multiple inputs; unexpected delays (contractor issues, supply chain, regulatory changes) can occur despite favorable scores. No scoring model is 100% predictive.

Market Volatility: Dubai real estate is cyclical. Appreciation and yield estimates are based on current market conditions and historical patterns. Downturns in the broader UAE or global economy can impact returns.

Regulatory Changes: RERA rules, tax policy, Golden Visa criteria and financing regulations evolve. Buyers should monitor official sources for updates.

Legal & Tax Advice: This tracker provides market data only. For legal, tax and investment advice, consult a qualified lawyer, accountant and real estate advisor in Dubai.

Best Practices for Off-Plan Investment

Use this tracker to shortlist: Filter by delivery risk, payment plan and appreciation potential. Start with VERY_LOW/LOW risk developers.
Review the Developer Track Record: Click the developer link to see on-time delivery %, financial strength and complaint volume.
Check RERA registrations: Visit rera.ae and verify project registration, payment plan approval and any reported issues.
Consult a real estate lawyer: Review the off-plan purchase agreement, escrow protections, handover guarantees and refund clauses. A lawyer is essential.
Understand financing: Off-plan mortgages are typically 70–80% loan-to-value. Get a pre-approval letter from a bank and factor in interest rates and fees.
Site visit (if possible): Visit the project site during construction to assess progress and developer professionalism.
Don't over-leverage: Only invest capital you can afford to lock up for 3–5 years. Off-plan requires patience and conviction.
Diversify: Spread investments across multiple projects, communities and developers to reduce idiosyncratic risk.

Connection to Wave 7: Developer Track Record

This Off-Plan Tracker (Wave 8) builds directly on Wave 7's Developer Track Record. The 60% weighting of developer trust in delivery risk scoring comes from Wave 7's comprehensive analysis of:

Handover On-Time Percentage (20 years of historical data)
Average Delay (months overdue, when applicable)
Post-Handover Appreciation (2-year and 5-year trends)
Financial Strength Tier (listed status, cash flow, debt ratios)
Complaint Volume Tier (RERA complaints and dispute resolution)

Tier-1 developers (Emaar, Sobha, Nakheel) scored GOLD badges in Wave 7 and carry 90+ delivery risk scores here. Mid-tier developers (Binghatti, Azizi) scored SILVER/BRONZE and carry MEDIUM risk here. This ensures internal consistency across waves.

View the full Developer Track Record →

Have Questions About the Methodology?

For clarifications on scoring, data sources, or project-specific questions, reach out to the MRK team on WhatsApp. We're here to help.

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