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MRK Real Estate
Données de marché/23 octobre 2026/ 5 min de lecture

Cavendish Maxwell counts AED 72.6bn of Dubai home sales in Q3 2026

Off-plan took 72% of purchases but 65% of value. The gap between the two is the most useful number in the report.

Chiffres clés

AED 72.6bn

Q3 2026 residential sales value

72%

Off-plan share of purchases

65%

Off-plan share of value

AED 292bn

Year-to-date residential value

Le texte intégral ci-dessous est publié en anglais.

En bref

Cavendish Maxwell reports more than AED 72.6bn of Dubai residential sales in Q3 2026, with off-plan accounting for 72% of purchases and 65% of sales value. September alone contributed nearly AED 23.2bn, taking year-to-date residential value to AED 292bn.

L'analyse

What actually happened

Dubai homes worth more than AED 72.6bn changed hands in the third quarter of 2026, according to Cavendish Maxwell's quarterly residential review, released through Zawya. The consultancy puts quarterly volume at around 34,000 transactions. Off-plan properties accounted for 72% of purchases and 65% of sales value, confirming that new launches remain the engine of activity even as the ready segment gains ground.

September on its own delivered nearly AED 23.2bn across about 10,300 transactions. That took residential sales value for the first nine months of 2026 to AED 292bn. The headline figures sit close to other Q3 reads, including Springfield Properties' count of AED 72.58bn across 33,949 residential transactions, which gives some comfort that the totals are consistent across data providers.

Why it matters

The seven-point gap between off-plan's share of purchases and its share of value is the part we would underline. It means the average off-plan ticket was smaller than the average ready ticket in the quarter. New launches are increasingly weighted toward compact apartments in emerging districts, while established villa and waterfront communities carry the larger individual transactions.

It is also worth reading the quarter against the first half. Cavendish Maxwell recorded close to 79,200 residential transactions in H1 2026, so a quarter of roughly 34,000 sits at a steadier pace than the record run earlier in the year. That is not a contraction in value terms, but it does suggest the market has moved from acceleration into a more measured rhythm.

Our read

Buyers drawn to off-plan should focus on what the value gap implies: much of the volume is in smaller units in newer areas, where future resale will compete with many similar homes. Choosing distinctive layouts, strong developers and communities with established infrastructure matters more than ever when so much comparable stock is being sold at once.

Owners of ready villas and prime apartments are holding the segment where capital per transaction is highest, and that depth supports pricing. Investors weighing the next quarter should watch whether monthly totals stay near the September level of about AED 23bn. A steady run at that pace would point to a mature, sustainable market rather than a peak.

Questions

Why do different reports give slightly different Q3 totals?

Providers filter Dubai Land Department data differently, for example on residential versus commercial assets or on how transfers are classified. Cavendish Maxwell's AED 72.6bn and Springfield's AED 72.58bn residential figures are close, which suggests the overall picture is reliable.

Is a quarter of around 34,000 transactions a slowdown?

It is a steadier pace than H1 2026, when Cavendish Maxwell counted close to 79,200 transactions over six months. Value remained substantial, so we read it as normalisation rather than a downturn.

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