AED 151bn of Dubai mortgages in nine months: finance is carrying more of the market

Dubai Land Department figures reported on 1 October show mortgage transactions worth about AED 151.13bn across 34,910 transactions in the first nine months of 2026. Of those, 22,060 were residential units, 4,223 were buildings and 8,627 were land. September contributed AED 16.79bn through 4,266 mortgage transactions.

W Capital's reading of the same DLD data puts nine-month mortgage value at AED 150.6bn, a 14% increase on the AED 132.21bn recorded a year earlier. Total real estate activity passed AED 574bn, with sales of about AED 379.4bn, the second-highest nine-month figure on record after 2025.

The contrast is the story. W Capital estimates third-quarter sales at around AED 92.3bn, against AED 169bn in the same quarter of 2025. Sales value cooled meaningfully, yet mortgage activity kept growing. That suggests finance is now carrying a larger share of the market than in the cash-dominated surge of the past two years.

Mortgage registrations cover more than new purchases. They include refinancing, equity release and finance secured against land and whole buildings, which explains the sizeable land and building counts. Even so, rising residential mortgage volumes point to more end users and long-term holders entering with bank finance rather than short payment-plan exposure.

This growth also came before the September base rate rise had time to work through pricing, so the next two quarters will show whether borrowing appetite holds at higher cost.

For buyers, a finance-led market tends to be more disciplined. Bank valuations act as a ceiling on what lenders will support, which gives well-advised buyers a useful reference point in negotiation, particularly on ready homes where valuation and asking price can diverge.

For sellers, the pool of mortgage-dependent buyers is growing. Pricing in line with likely bank valuations, and having title, service charge and handover paperwork ready, shortens the path to completion for a financed purchaser.

For investors, the shift is a sign of a maturing market rather than a fading one. Leverage magnifies both yield and risk, so stress-test any financed acquisition against a higher rate environment, and favour communities where rental depth supports the debt.