Dubai Property Market Outlook 2027: What S&P, Moody's, Fitch and Knight Frank Say

Dubai enters 2027 after a year of recalibration. Residential sales value fell 47% year on year in the third quarter of 2026 to about AED 72.6 billion, according to Cavendish Maxwell figures reported by Khaleej Times on 7 October 2026. Yet the emirate still registered about AED 625 billion of transactions in the first ten months of the year, according to DLD data reported on 31 October 2026.

Against that backdrop, the question for 2027 is less about demand collapsing and more about how the market absorbs a large wave of new homes.

S&P Global's latest assessment, reported by Khaleej Times on 7 October 2026, expects Dubai's residential stock to increase by around 20% over the next two years, with apartments making up most of the new supply. It anticipates that apartment prices will come under more pressure than villas and that deliveries in 2027 and 2028 could accelerate a correction in investor-driven apartment segments.

S&P also said a 2008-style crash is unlikely in the short term and that, if geopolitical risk subsides in 2027, Dubai's supportive fundamentals and regulatory framework could allow prices to stabilise. This is the most recent dated institutional view available at the time of writing.

Moody's, as reported by Gulf News in a piece last updated on 10 September 2025, forecast a modest price correction starting in 2026 as more than 150,000 new homes — roughly a 20% addition to Dubai's housing stock — are delivered between 2025 and 2027. It described its outlook as stable over a 12-to-18-month horizon. That view predates the 2026 regional tensions, so read it as a supply-driven baseline rather than a current call.

Fitch Ratings, reported by The National on 29 May 2025, expected a moderate correction in residential prices from the second half of 2025 into 2026, with a decline of no more than 15%, driven by record deliveries. Fitch said banks and homebuilders had buffers to absorb such a fall. Again, this forecast is now more than a year old; check for an updated Fitch publication before relying on it for 2027.

Knight Frank has not published a dated 2027 price forecast that we could verify, but its latest data — reported on 21 October 2026 — showed prime prices down 5% from the second to the third quarter, the first quarterly fall since 2020, with Palm Jumeirah 9.1% lower year on year at about AED 4,083 per square foot. Its researchers pointed to geopolitics as the main drag and described Palm Jumeirah as increasingly offering value.

We could not locate a dated, primary CBRE forecast for Dubai prices in 2027 at the time of writing, and we have not reproduced unverified figures attributed to it elsewhere online. We will update this article when one is published.

Property forecasts age quickly. A view published in mid-2025, before the regional tensions of 2026, was formed under very different conditions from one published in October 2026. That is why each forecast in this article is presented with its date and the outlet that reported it. Where we could not verify a primary forecast, we have said so rather than repeating figures circulating without a clear origin.

It is also worth noting what rating agencies are trying to measure. Fitch, Moody's and S&P assess the credit risk of developers, banks and governments, so their property commentary focuses on downside scenarios and balance-sheet resilience. Brokerage researchers such as Knight Frank tend to focus on transaction evidence and buyer behaviour. Both perspectives are useful, but they answer slightly different questions.

The common thread across all of them is supply. Every institution cited here identifies the scale of deliveries between 2025 and 2028 as the main factor that will shape prices.

Rather than relying on any single forecast, buyers and owners can track a handful of indicators that tend to lead price movements. The first is the monthly delivery count: fäm Properties recorded 5,777 units handed over in September 2026 alone. A sustained rise in deliveries without a matching rise in population or rental demand typically precedes softer apartment pricing.

The second is the ready-home share of sales. In October 2026, ready properties accounted for the larger share of sales value, according to DLD data reported by Emirates 24|7. If end-users continue absorbing completed stock, that is a sign of underlying depth in the market.

The third is prime pricing. Knight Frank's prime index moved lower in the third quarter of 2026 for the first time since 2020; whether that proves a short pause or the start of a longer adjustment will be a useful barometer for 2027 sentiment.

Finally, the geopolitical backdrop matters. S&P Global's more constructive scenario depends on regional risk subsiding during 2027.

Taken together, the dated forecasts describe a market moving from scarcity to choice: more completed apartments, more competition among developers, and greater resilience in villas and genuinely scarce prime addresses. For buyers, that favours careful selection, inspection of ready stock and attention to the delivery pipeline in any given community. For holders, it argues for patience over forced sales.

Forecasts are opinions, not guarantees, and none of the above is a promise of returns. Confirm the latest figures with the Dubai Land Department and seek independent financial advice.